Thunderstorm Outlook
The Weather Channel's Severe Weather Expert, Dr. Greg Forbes (Facebook | Twitter) developed the TOR:CON index to estimate the risk of a tornado on a given day or night near your area. What is TOR:CON?
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What is TORCON?
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8+ Very high probability of a tornado
6 - High probability of a tornado
4 - Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
2 - Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
0 - Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm
The TOR:CON index ranges from 0 to 10. Multiply the value by 10 to get your chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location. For example, a TOR:CON index of 6 means there's a 60% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location (for example, southern Kansas).
For more on all severe thunderstorm threats, including damaging winds and large hail, check our severe weather tracker page.
Note: By definition, a severe thunderstorm contains one or more of the following: hail at least 1 inch in diameter, wind gusts 58 mph or higher, or a tornado.
Thursday, May 23
Scattered severe thunderstorms in the TX panhandle, northwest TX near Childress, Abilene, Midland, north-central
TX, west and southwest OK, northeast NM. TOR:CON - 3 east TX panhandle and northwest TX near Childress and Abilene, southwest OK; 2 rest of above areas.
Isolated severe thunderstorms in central, east, and southeast NY, VT, east PA, MD, north NJ, DC, east WV, west and north VA, west MA, west CT. TOR:CON - 2 these areas.
Friday, May 24
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms in west NE, east CO, west KS, OK panhandle, north TX panhandle. TOR:CON - 3 west NE, east CO, west KS; 2 rest of above area.
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