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TOR:CON Value Descriptions
8+ Very high probability of a tornado
6 - High probability of a tornado
4 - Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
2 - Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
0 - Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm
The TOR:CON index ranges from 0 to 10. Multiply the value by 10 to get your chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location. For example, a TOR:CON index of 6 means there's a 60% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the indicated area.
For more on all severe thunderstorm threats, including damaging winds and large hail, check our severe weather tracker page.
Note: By definition, a severe thunderstorm contains one or more of the following: hail at least 1 inch in diameter, wind gusts 58 mph or higher, or a tornado.
Tuesday, March 11
A chance of an isolated marginally severe thunderstorm in the evening and night in central MO, central IL. TOR:CON - less than 1
Wednesday, March 12
Isolated severe thunderstorms in NJ, southeast and south-central PA, MD, DE, DC, northeast WV, central and east VA, north-central NC, and possibly Long Island in NY. TOR:CON - less than 2
Thursday, March 13
No severe thunderstorms. TOR:CON - zero
Friday, March 14
No severe thunderstorms, but a chance of a thunderstorm in east TX, southeast OK, west LA, southwest AR. TOR:CON - zero
Saturday, March 15
Computer models differ in the position of a weak surface low, with the European model saying north-central TX, while the American GFS model says LA/MS. A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in east TX, LA, MS. TOR:CON - 1 or less
Sunday, March 16
Computer models still disagree, reducing forecast confidence. A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in FL, south TX. TOR:CON - less than 1
Monday, March 17
A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in south FL. TOR:CON - less than 1